Agenda item

The Board considered a presentation from Matt Pearce (Agenda Item 4) on the Covid-19 Situational Report. Key points from the presentation included:

·         West Berkshire testing rates were the lowest of the 6 Berkshire unitary authorities.

·         The positivity rate was 17%.

·         There were 840.6 cases per 100,000 population in West Berkshire in the week ending 15 January, which was down on the previous period, but the latest data showed a slight increase.

·         Amongst residents aged 60+, there were 317.3 cases per 100,000 population, which was lower than the other Berkshire authorities.

·         Transmission remained high, with 1,332 infections in the week ending 15 January, with the risk of people experiencing long-Covid symptoms.

·         The sharp rise and sudden decline in cases mirrored that experienced in South Africa.

·         The recent increase was thought to be related to schools returning after the Christmas break.

·         Rates were highest amongst those aged 5-9 years, with 2,555.9 cases per 100,000 population – the Public Health Team was working closely with primary schools.

·         The rates for 5-9 year olds was increasing sharply, while rates for all other age groups were falling or flattening.

·         An increase amongst those aged 10-14 had been seen nationally, but there had only been a slight rise in cases for this age group locally.

·         There were 65 confirmed Covid-19 inpatients in the Royal Berkshire Hospital.

·         Admissions to intensive care were much lower than in previous waves.

·         Many patients were in hospital for other reasons.

·         There was still significant pressure on hospitals which generally experienced additional demand during the winter months.

·         There was a downward trend in case numbers across most wards in West Berkshire.

·         There had been one Covid-related death in West Berkshire the last week, with 289 since the start of the pandemic.

·         There had been a 16% increase in the all-cause mortality rate compared to the five year average, which equated to 355 additional deaths.

·         Caution was urged in interpreting the data, since many of the deaths were not attributable to Covid-19.

·         The latest data showed that the number of deaths was lower than expected. This was thought to be attributable to Covid control measures and the lack of social mixing.

The Chairman suggested that it would be useful to look at national data on the differences between hospitalisation rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. He also asked if there was any data on the ages of Covid patients being admitted to hospital, given the current trend for high case rates amongst children, and what the long-term impacts were on different age groups. He also asked how statistics handled people who had tested positive for Covid, but had then died due to different causes(e.g. traffic accident).

Matt Pearce confirmed that the vast majority of those who were getting severely ill were unvaccinated. While he did not have local data, national data showed an increase in admissions of children with Covid. However, the rates were much lower than for adults. Statistics referred to people who had Covid within the previous 28 days as a proxy. The best data was based on the primary cause of death as stated on death certificates, but this tended to be more delayed.

Tracy Daszkiewicz confirmed that the data had last been updated on 21 December, which showed an increase in children being admitted to hospital with Covid. She undertook to do more research and forward the information to the Chairman.

Councillor Martha Vickers noted that when her grandson had contracted Covid, she had found conflicting advice about isolation periods on the NHS and Government websites, and wondered what advice was being given to schools and businesses.

Matt Pearce indicated that policies had changed quickly and at short notice, and there was often a lag in the Government updating their webpages. While the Council communicated the most recent data it had, residents were often found to be accessing out of date information via other sources. He acknowledged the challenge of keeping up to date with the changes.

Councillor Steve Masters asked if the sudden drop in infection rates had coincided with the period where Lateral Flow Devices had been in short supply, and if the recent increase could be attributable to supplies improving.

Matt Pearce confirmed that analysts were looking at this. However, the Office for National Statistics undertook sampling of the population and their data was showing a decline in prevalence. He indicated that the true figure would never be known and the test results would always be an under-estimation. The figures would be monitored closely in the coming days to see how much they increased. He confirmed that a large number of primary school children would be infected in the coming weeks and months.

Councillor Masters asked about the prevalence and duration of Long-Covid in children.

Matt Pearce did not have any data on this and highlighted issues with classifying Long-Covid. However, he undertook to investigate and report back on existing data. He also noted that re-infections were being monitored, since Omicron was more likely to re-infect individuals.

The Chairman asked if this referred to re-infection with the same or different strains. Matt Pearce confirmed that it referred to having Covid again with any strain.