Agenda item

Jane Seymour introduced the report (Agenda Item 12) that set out the current financial position of the high needs budget for 2022/23 and the position as far as it could be predicted for 2023/24, including the likely shortfall.

Jane Seymour explained that the report provided an update to the version that had been presented to the Forum in December 2022 and therefore only changes would be highlighted.

It could be seen from paragraph 3.7 that the overall net shortfall position in the 2023-24 HNB Budget was about £8.8m. This included an overspend from the current financial year of £2.7m and £3.5m carried over from previous years. Without the carry forwards from previous years the shortfall in 2023/24 would be in the region of £2.5m. The reasons for the pressure on the HNB had been discussed in great detail and was a national issue. These reasons were covered in detail in the report.

The main changes in the figures compared to what was presented to the Forum in December 2022 were explained in paragraphs 3.8 and 3.9 of the report. In December the shortfall had expected to be £8.6m and this had since increased by £212k. This was because the 2022/23 forecast overspend had increased by just under £500k and the predicted budget requirement for 2023/24 had also increased by £885k giving a total increase of £1.3m across the two information years. Jane Seymour reported however, that as mentioned by Melanie Ellis earlier in the meeting, the HNB settlement for 2023-24 was £1,145,577 higher than was anticipated and this mostly offset the increase in estimated costs leaving a net increase of £212,220 since the previous report.

Jane Seymour reported that October/November was quite early to predict demand for 2022/23 and when this was recalculated around December/January time more information was available. Jane Seymour stated that section 3.9 of the report set out in detail the reasons for the increase in predicted spend in the current year. It was partly around FE costs including an increase in the number of students and fee costs, in addition to increased EHCPs in mainstream schools since the last estimates were produced. There had also been a couple of additional external placements.

Section 3.10 of the report set out the reason for the increase in the estimated budget requirement for 2023/24 and this related mainly to increased placements in independent settings and non-maintained special schools, which had not been anticipated. It had been hoped that more cost effective placements could be secured with other local authority maintained special schools however, this had not been possible. Other placements had also been required for children who had moved to the area or whose placements has broken down. There was also the impact rolling forward of increased EHCPs in mainstream schools and increased FE placement costs, as well as some additional special school costs.

Jane Seymour concluded that this was the expected position for 2023/24 at the current time. The Chair commented that it was a hugely challenging area.

RESOLVED that the Schools Forum noted the report.